AfL affordable resi development

TFL, AFL, laughable?

As a residential investment researcher I am not often flummoxed, but when the news came out that Transport for London or ‘TFL’ chose Apartments for London Limited (AFL) to develop land owned by TFL for affordable housing, I was just that. Why would TFL choose AFL? We know that TFL is desperate to sell off land to help reduce its £1bn in debt. But how come that AFL ended-up being the preferred partner?

At Property Overview the resi experts stuck our heads together to look at who AFL is. AFL does not exactly have a long track record or a solid residential reputation. AFL has yet to produce its first accounts but appears to have only £100 in capital. Its Non-Executive Directors’s are both Labour and Conservative party “older states people” plus two owners of Mark Warner, the travel company.

AFL’s CEO Johnny Goldsmith might have a 22-year track record in Foreign Exchange trading, but we fail to see its relevance for building affordable homes.

Is it just me to find it even odder is that one the major shareholders appears to be a Chinese resident who, according to the all-knowing Google, is connected to various offshore tax havens?

Goldsmith Capital Partners Limited (the other large AFL shareholder) has a stunning £96 in capital, has yet to produce accounts, its CEO is AFL’s CEO and Goldsmith Capital Partners is also partly owned by the two Mark Warner directors.

The plot thickens. Reader, what is your take on this? Comments welcome!

The author Charles Fairhurst is one of the residential letting, management and investment experts with extensive PRS fund management experience, and is a trainer and consultant.

For further reading, see http://www.cityam.com/263751/transport-london-steps-up-property-ambitions-after or https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/markets/sectors/housing/tfl-picks-modular-developer-for-tube-site-homes/10035577.article and https://www.apartmentsforlondon.org/about-us/

How blockchain is the new kid on the block in real estate

The property industry is not exactly known for being an early adopter, welcoming change with open arms. Change happens regardless, albeit at a slower pace than might happen elsewhere. It has a habit of creeping up on you. Change can be a force for the better.

Property can reap the benefits from this revolutionary technology also known as Blockchain. Its use isn’t a ‘no-brainer’ as in property very little is straight forward. Try to find one definition of ‘core’ for example. Companies all have their own definitions and do things their own way. This makes it harder for something that needs a standardised process to take place to prosper. Streamlined processes are created to enable Blockchain, thus making the world a more orderly, efficient place.

The elephant in the room is how environmentally friendly Blockchain is. It requires enormous computing power, and many severs across the world are eating electricity like a ravenous dog. I am confident that over time this conundrum will be solved, or at least lessened.

Disruptors in the market are already attacking the slow, inefficient ways, slowly chipping away on the edges of the status quo. Over time the benefit from more efficient, streamlined processes will win over more and more companies. Blockchain can help with speeding up processes. It can help save time, money, and provide enhanced security and clarity. That makes companies sit up and pay attention!

First things first, however. What is Blockchain? It is an indelible record that gets recorded as part of a chain, and whereby there isn’t a central authority in control of registration but where responsibility is shared across a wide network. As the odd one out is ignored and it’s virtually impossible to control most, Blockchain is seen as very secure.

The indelible information can be changed later in a bolted-on form, and those changes can be tracked. The technology is very secure. To add a new data block to the chain, a special identifying number has to be generated. It cannot be predicted where that will happen (where it will be ‘mined’), so that is the first security layer. As many servers around the world verify the information and check with each other constantly, it is impossible to manipulate all at the same time. A third security feature is that computers would automatically work on the longest chain, so any other ones would be abandoned.

All together it means that Blockchain is far more secure than your chip and pin card or your on-line banking set-up. People always refuse to believe in how secure Blockchain is, yet at the same time they are happy to get cash out of a machine using a 4-digit pin code. People need to stop doubting how secure it is and embrace it as a superior and more secure way to transact whilst keeping an eye out for any possible threats – as anyone ought to do at all times anyway.

Blockchain is a technology which started off driving Bitcoin, and the same technical principles behind it can be applied in many ways within the property industry. A few are rather obvious. Blockchain records information ultra-securely, so putting things like title deeds or shares on Blockchain can help cut fraud. Various countries are experimenting with putting land registry onto Blockchain.

Another big area where Blockchain can change the world of real estate is through so-called Smart Contracts. Whilst the commercial real estate world is still to archaic to see its application here soon, Deloitte in the Netherlands are working on putting residential leases onto Blockchain using Smart Contracts. These digital contracts contain lots of information, and can be automatically enacted. You can for example arrange for automatic rental payments. With contracts as a secure record and with is automatic execution, I feel this is a real growth area.

Property is considered ‘lumpy’ as you cannot sell it in small chunks. Blockchain can help change this. If a share could easily be bought via Blockchain and ownership acknowledged, trading a unit becomes a lot simpler. Basically it is as if crowdfunding is used for a larger property. This will serve to make the market more liquid and more transparent.

That’s a great thing, right?

This blog was first posted on FUTURE:Proptech on 30th January 2018 https://futureproptech.co.uk/2018/01/30/how-blockchain-is-the-new-kid-on-the-block-in-real-estate/

A.I. for you and I

It would be hard to miss many of the changes taking place at home where technology help shapes the world. At work, in the property industry, it’s not as obvious…yet. But it will be.

You expect your bank to have automatic protection against card fraud in place. On-line retailing or ‘e-tailing’ has become normal to most adults below the age of 70. That is two ways how technology has crept into our lives. How about the ways to watch, stream or record TV, how to listen to music? In my home CDs and vinyl (it’s made a come-back!) get played rarely: music is mostly streamed now.

There are ready-made playlists to choose from. Suggestions of what else you might want to buy, watch or listen to jump at you left, right and centre. Virtual assistants with mostly female names and voices offer their assistance in what to cook, how to cook, what to order, best routes to take, to make a note in the diary et cetera. No one forces you to use them, but often you do as many times you find something good through them, right?

All the examples I talked about will have a form of A.I., short for Artificial Intelligence, behind them. A.I. simply said is software sitting on a server somewhere that automatically collects data, then analyses and filters it, endeavouring to select what it thinks is most suitable based on certain ‘algorithms’, for example your behaviour showing newsfeed preference. It’s not even a machine or a robot with a human-like face, as it’s often depicted. That’s just to make it more appealing.

But software is also learning to act and think like humans, to have a personality and to process language, be it speech or writing. Artificial neural networks create an artificial form of a thinking brain. Natural language processing, i.e. listening to another person or reading and understanding what they have written, seems easy to us. However, computers don’t understand this language, as it is designed for people. There are lots of colloquialisms, ambiguous or double meanings, people use incorrect grammar, and so on. Natural language processing or NLP helps computers make sense of human language.

For many users it’s easier and convenient to speak to computers. By being able to process human language computers can access a wealth of information, however. Think how much exists on the web these days. And the great thing is that computers can learn and improve. Machine learning doesn’t take place 9 to 5, machines do not get bored or want holidays and weekends the way humans do. They might start slowly, making many mistakes at the start, but it keeps going, improving all the time.

Virtual assistants and virtual reality can help occupiers find their desired property, software can learn the due diligence process, read leases and contracts, can connect disparate databases together and find trends, or help monitor plants within buildings and schedule maintenance works or adjustments. Robots can assist in factories where modular units are built for housing, helping relieve the lack of manpower in the construction industry. Automated Valuation Models will become more common as it improves. The use of office, retail and logistical space can be optimised by the right intelligent software. A.I. will be used by renters, buyers, sellers, investors, property managers and service suppliers in ways we yet cannot fully contemplate.

Yes, it will replace some jobs, but it will create other, better jobs, and help the economy grow. Let the computers do the boring work and let us get on with the exciting work in the property industry!

This blog was first posted through FUTURE: Proptech on 19th February 2018

Big data, big deal?

Property, or ‘Real Estate’ to those outside the UK, is slow, inefficient and conservative as a profession. Low transparency reigns, and data analysis comes through after a number of months – if at all. Big Data can help us see more and what is going on now. So yes, I think Big Data is a big deal. To those of you who are new to the concept of Big Data I’m going to explain first what it is, and then how it is being applied in real estate.

Data being used for Big Data-style projects in property right now are mostly not yet genuinely ‘Big’. There are normally a few words starting with the letter v being bandied around when talking about ‘Big Data’. Engineers at IBM use four of them: volume, velocity, variety and veracity. Some might throw in an extra one in for the sake of it: sometimes ‘value’, sometimes ‘variability’.

Let’s start with the first one: volume. The world is full of data, and growth in the amount of data produced is truly exponential. (tip: invest in data centres!?) There are sensors everywhere, things are being recorded with every order, every website visit, every call, every upload. Currently our living rooms are the most connected within each household, but soon our cars will overtake this. Workplaces are increasingly getting sensors connected to the internet, producing reams of data, for a variety of reasons.

UK Land Registry gave away its data for free recently and you can’t kick their data into shape and analyse it with excel or an access database. As it’s big, right? Well, it’s big, but not in Big Data terms. The volume of data that Big Data is set up to be able to store and process is for far more serious volumes that require some really specialist ‘kit’.

What are serious amounts of data? Consider the amount of data generated by mobile phone use in just 1 day across the globe (with 6 billion mobile phones held by 7 billion earthlings!), the amount of data generated by social media sites, YouTube and the likes, or driverless cars. What if you wanted to analyse big trends, to find out what people worry about or what makes them happy right now, what makes them spend money on your product or invest in certain types of property? What if analysing it helps you sell more effectively to retail customers or sell investments just before a market crash?

The second ‘v’ that Big Data should have is velocity, a posh word for ‘speed’. How fast is new data being generated, and how fast it is collected & analysed? Data being produced but not labelled, categorised and processed is useless, and the larger the time gap until it is processed, the lower its value (hey, is that another ‘v’ I sneaked in there?). Analysis needs to be timely and actionable to be really of value.

For those of us who look at property performance data or lettings & sales deals in the market must wait at least a number of weeks until past the quarter-end to find out the recent trends in the property markets. What if we could see things instantly? It would transform the property industry.

Variety focuses on how many types of data is being collected within ‘Big Data’. How many sources of data are there that you combine, how do you get to connect them up, how complex is the data and how dissimilar or ‘disparate’ are they? Can you compare apples with pears? Companies like VTS and Dashflow are using software to combine data into something very powerful.

If we can put data sources together like pieces of a puzzle, the overall picture generated can provide enormous clarity. CBRE has started a service called ‘calibrate’ that astounds me. It is of use to retailers as well as landlords/investors. They take consumer profiling and analysis of retail spend behaviour to a new level. It analyses things like who makes what the type of purchase where at what time of day and how often. They track GPS signals of people’s mobile devices and thus know where people live and shop, and you can combine this with credit card data so you know what they spend. They know where I Iike to eat out and how often I do so, and how much time and money I spend each time at the restaurants. They analyse consumer behaviour at each location, for each shop and the shop next door (keen to find out how the competition is doing?). They and other consultancies combine data sources to build up detailed shopping habit pictures instantly, creating great value within retail property. Surprisingly few retailers have opted to use Big Data – yet. But I cannot imagine they won’t. It would be silly not to. Evolve or die…

How about Big Data and ‘veracity’ then? With this the focus is on data quality. Garbage in, garbage out! Especially when using data in turn for machine learning it is essential that data is of good quality. What is it that you want to achieve, so think about what type of data you may collect, how often and from what sources.

Can I be nerdy for a few seconds to think about what quality means? You want data that is accurate, trustworthy, consistent. Is it complete? Timely? For consumer data you want to get a single view: no duplication for the same consumer with different profiles. One true record. And for the number crunchers amongst us you would look at whether it meets minimum standards (‘validity’).

Data is being collected via many sensors within buildings to make sure they are efficiently run and optimally used. And if not, it can be quickly adjusted. Sensors help ensure logistics, retail and office units can be used better. Is one corner in the office no longer used for desk use, then let’s turn it into a more productive meeting space. It can help keep buildings and sites secure. What if data was combined with machine learning? You don’t need a security guard at all entrances to an industrial estate to lift up a beam, but systems can read number plates of trucks automatically and open up the barrier? It can process information on how many trucks come in from where, how long they stay, and Big Data can be used to optimise how and when things are transported or how they are stored.

Investors could also benefit from monitoring the markets: is there nervousness, are we on the cusp of another crash, and if we do crash, what can we do best and how, how do we trade at each point of the day and at each point of the cycle? How (fast) are prices changing?

Big Data still has a long way to go to become ever more efficient. Real Estate needs to generate enough data sources good enough to use. However, as with many things, it is our imagination that will limit the uses for Big Data in the end.

This blog was first published via FUTURE: Proptech on 9th March

Additional links:

Footloose and fancy-free?

Nothing in life is sure but death, taxes and change. What people want, how they want it, when they want it changes from generation to generation.

Have you ever come across the term space-as-a-service (SAAS)? When people talk about this they mean that users of space – whether in residential, retail, office or logistics – are not tied down to the space they use, the use is flexible in nature, and some additional services might be provided as well.

Technology is essential to enable SAAS to function. Software makes it easy for a customer to find the space they need from an on-line listing site & hire it for a short time period. Apps also help them to make the most out of the space. It helps them connect with other users like them, or with those that are willing to let out the space to them. The software is needed to make it a seamless, effortless experience. Compare that to signing a 10-year lease on commercial space. Oh boy.

Do you want to find a free corner in a logistics warehouse where you can temporarily store goods, do you want to rent a pop-up space as a retailer to try out a new concept or a location, would you like to find somewhere to lie for a little while, or use a space for meetings when you want to get your team together who normally work in all wind directions?

Many of you have become familiar with brands like Appear Here, with WeWork, The Office Group and The Collective. A few of you might have even have heard of FlexSpace, which will connect temporary users with flexible workshop, industrial and self-storage space as well as the more common flexible office space.

You can’t just do anything you like with the space of course. No hazardous, dangerous material can be stored whenever and where-ever you want, and you can’t ply an illegal trade for a day. So there are some tricky things to consider sometimes.

Change in people’s work-life habits has given rise to co-working and co-living trends, with people ‘sharing’ (renting) capital-intensive goods & spaces through a short-term agreement with a service provider. Why own a car if you can easily hop into a cab or rent a car for two hours? This is often cheaper than owning a car, plus you don’t have to maintain it! No Sunday mornings spent in the freezing cold trying to wash the car or replace windscreen wipers. It saves time and hassle. With entertainment streaming so easy and affordable, why bother to own films and music? It doesn’t take up space, and when you’re bored with it you don’t need to chuck it.

The same principles apply to renting space in a property. It makes sense. So landlords, get ready to give people what they want. There is money to be made!

This blog was written for FUTURE:Proptech, and published on 9th April 2018 https://futureproptech.co.uk/category/space-as-a-service/

Inhabit: the purported £1bn development programme greystar is buying according to property week

The reported deal of Built-To-Rent (BTR) developer Inhabit, selling six sites to Greystar enabling a BTR development programme worth a reported £1bn, peaked my interest. Who is this developer I hadn’t heard of before?

Inhabit’s website is modern but offers surprisingly little information other than a passing mention of six sites in Glasgow, Aberdeen, Bristol, Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool. It directs you to Hawthorn London, a corporate & financial communications consultancy, for further enquiries, but doesn’t tell us anything else.

Inhabit’s initial investment appears to have been the acquisition of the listed Heap’s Mill complex (pictured, courtesy of Liverpool Echo, 14 January 2018) in Liverpool from developer Elliot Group early in April 2016. A report in early 2018 shows the site is in a derelict state.

Elliot had secured planning permission in October 2014 for 800 homes and 12,000 sq ft of leisure and retail units at the site, arranged around a public space called Baltic Square. At the time Inhabit reported it was independently owned and capitalised, and according to Companies House is led by Brandon Hollihan and Michael Kovacs, both of whom were also directors of Mercer Real Estate. Mercer Real Estate seemingly morphed into Castleforge or CF Corporate Services and other similar named companies.

Inhabit was previously called Residential Securities Limited and changed its name to Inhabit in April 2016; the most recent information in Companies House refers to the March 2017 accounts and suggests the company is owned by Inhabit Residential Limited, which has no assets other than some £2.4m in cash, and net assets after debt of £145,224. We used the fantastic database by Datscha to see the property ownership by this company, and none showed up.

Property Week reported in August 2017 that An(n)a Nekhamkin had been MD of Inhabit since 2015 and has worked in acquisitions for hotels. Ana went to The Wharton School in the USA like Michael Kovacs, one of the two directors registered as owning Inhabit Residential Ltd at Companies House.

Brandon (Alexis) Hollihan and American-born Michael (Bela) Kovacs both hold 11 active company director appointments, and An(n)a Nekhamkin holds 2: LAMA Urban and LeClub Enterprises, the latter with Kovacs and Hollihan.

This is the first Market Commentary blog on behalf of Property Overview by Charles Fairhurst, an Institutional PRS expert providing PRS training in this booming sector where few have actual experience. Please keep your eye out for upcoming blogs on all matters PRS, written by our PRS experts

Further reading:

UK commercial RE lending survey 2017 take-aways

Dr. Nicole Lux, Senior Research Fellow at Cass Business School and author of the UK Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey now with a double-billing of Cass and de Montfort University gave an excellent presentation at a dedicated seminar hosted by Allen & Overy on Thu 26th April in London. Nicole Lux is also the teacher of the ‘Understanding RE Debt‘ course provided by Property Overview.

What are the key take-aways from the RE lending survey?
– The total UK real estate debt loan book was flat in 2017 at £199bn, with an additional £34.5m undrawn
– The category ‘other non-bank lending increased during 2017 due to more such providers appearing on the scene
– Loan origination in 2017 is on a par with 2016 at £44bn, and growth in non-bank RE lending also shows here whilst the share of other international banks fell
– The amount of mezzanine debt has been declining since its peak in 2015 (de-risking?), including as % of senior debt
– The sweetspot in term of lean size in 2017 was £20-£50m
– Looking at the size of lenders there were 28 debt providers lending less than £500m in total (i.e. 28 small debt providers). There were 22 between £1-2.5bn loan book and only 6 debt providers above £5bn (of which 2 had a loan book over over £10bn a piece)
– Total amount of debt outstanding has been flat since 2014 but finance margins are still at a historic low (up marginally on 2016)
– Loans outstanding outside the UK: Loans to property in Germany dominates but clear growth was seen in RE lending to the Netherlands and to a lesser extent in France
– Outstanding development loans: £4.3bn to fully pre-let commercial, strong growth in lending to residential for sale @ £15.5bn and another £2.2bn to speculative and part-let commercial property developments
– In development finance less money is going to retail property (are we surprised here?) and residential is the most popular by far
– Secondary property has the lowest LTV at which RE debt is being provided, and not surprisingly secondary retail has the lowest average LTV of all property segments at 56% LTV. However, residential which has the highest LTV still only reaches 59% on average during 2017. Prime office also has a relatively low LTV: as lenders are weary of that market segment being overpriced?
– Non-bank lenders provide more risky loans compared to other providers when measured by the level of Loan-To-Value (LTV)
– Of the different types of lenders the UK banks and building societies are most exposed in terms of maturity as they have the largest % of all types of lenders at 24% with loans maturing this year. This for example with the least vulnerable types of lenders: insurance companies with 5% maturing within the next 12 months. Insurance companies had 23% of their loans outstanding not maturing for another 10 years or more! It confirms the reputation of insurance companies as long-term loan providers

There are more salient points, but I think the above is more then enough! If not, try to get your hands on a copy of the RE debt survey!

For more details about the course ‘understanding RE debt’ with Nicole Lux: https://www.propertyoverview.co.uk/understanding-re-debt

How safe is retail as an investment?

You might be familiar with statistics, based on the lease events report by MSCI & BNP PRE, that roughly show that retail is a safer investment than offices and industrial based on the fact that retailers on average tend to sign longer leases than office or industrial/logistics, tend to ask for fewer break clauses within new leases, choose to activate a break less often and get shorter rent-free periods. Also, if a property falls vacant at the end of a lease it gets re-let relatively more quickly. So, does that show that retail is the best place to put your money?

Judging by the growth of money heading for logistics, the answer is probably no. So why?

Retail is suffering from very strong headwinds, and it is getting punched from many sides. Some retailers who are selling what is wanted and how it is wanted (and how quickly) are booming, but those that do not keep up are wilting. House of Fraser, Debenhams, Mothercare, Moss Bros, Claire’s Accessories and New Look represent just some of the struggling retailers whilst others already failed to make the summer of 2018, such as Toys R Us, Maplin, Prezzo and Carpetright. The chart above, based on data from the Local Data Company (LDC), shows net physical store closures accelerating.

What people want and how

Consumers are shopping less in-store and more and more on-line. A physical presence of a store is becoming less of a requirement and more of a burden to retailers. Retailers require fewer stores to ensure national coverage, and those close redundant stores. Those retailers that combine a ‘physical’ store presence with an on-line presence often retain their market share if done well. But remarkably many physical shop retailers are old-fashioned and do not have a (satisfactory) on-line presence. Some types of products are more susceptible than others to be replaced by on-line shopping. Counter-intuitively clothing is now 30% sold on-line.

In the UK on-line shopping in Q417 accounted for 18% of retail spend according to the ONS. Predictions are that on-line shopping will go up to 40% of retail spend, perhaps even around the 50% level. People want an experience when they go for a day out, or they want their parcel delivered to their door quickly. Which retailers can win this race to fulfil the customer’s wish and still make a profit? There lies the challenge.

The exodus from the city centres to the suburbs was reversed in many places (although this can be subject to change again). For now some suburban schemes are suffering from the renewed attention on the city centre, away from the suburbs.

Debt

Some retailers are heavily burdened by debt. Private Equity firms might take a firm private, load it up with debt in an effort to boost their returns, but in stead kill off the goose with the golden eggs.

Costs

Retailers are being pummelled from many sides. Punched on the nose by rising wages. Punched in the stomach by Brexit, causing input prices to rise. Kicked in the shin by low wage growth so consumers become more choosey with their disposable income (in part due to low consumer confidence), particularly hurting those with lowest incomes. A blow to the neck is the rise in business rates and rents. Distribution, fuel and advertising costs are just there to add some more punches to the temples and kidneys.

Demise of key retailers

When big retailers go under, others might suffer. If we are taking about a retail park, shopping centre or high street where a retailer was a draw. Footfall might decline to that destination, and other retailers might suffer as a consequence. An unpleasant side-effect. That is why in the US some shopping centres are at death’s door: retailers there often had clauses granting them a rent-reduction or get-out clause if a big anchor left or closed. In the US 30% of ‘malls’ (300 schemes) are at risk of closure! www.deadmalls.com shares their stories with their readers.

Like the US, the UK has too much floorspace, and the weaker schemes, especially at the smaller end, are under threat. Shopping centres are increasingly being filled with leisure uses, co-working spaces, car or product showrooms, residential and F&B (Food & Beverage) – but is it still a shopping centre at the end? Pricing for prime centres (c.4.4%) and secondary centres (say 8.5%) show a huge gulf in the expectations for their futures and risk levels.

The higher yielding properties as well as the lower yielding properties increasingly demand active asset management. As across asset classes properties become more operational in nature. The property asset classes are converging in that sense. Landlords have to become more pro-active and provide more services and technology in buildings.

In conclusion

In conclusion we can say that the operating model of retailers is changing, willingly or not, with clear winners and losers. This (r)evolution is taking place due to structural changes such as changes in consumer preference, technology and a growth in operating costs coinciding with declining margins and often high debt-burdens.

Some retailers are coping with this change very well, and some retail landlords are on top of the changes, acting as leaders in their field. But it’s not a sector you can afford to be sleeping at the wheel, as we all know that can be deadly.

I have helped organise a seminar called ‘Technology: the make or break of retail?’ through SPR on 19th June, where we will look at how technology is a threat but also poses a great opportunity to retailers. Retail isn’t dead, it’s changing. For better, for worse, in sickness and in health.

Property Overview provides property knowledge training courses, ranging from generalist to specialist subjects, including on retail property, assisted by Matthew Hopkinson of Didobi

Build-to-Rent NOI growth predictions for the UK

Those interested in UK Build-to-Rent (‘BTR’) assets are keen to find out at what rate they can expect income to increase. Here we share the prospects on this, and what to consider for this young asset class.

Arguably, the key metric for valuing any investment is the expected rate at which income will increase, whether in form of dividend, bond coupon or rent. The faster the expected rate of increase, the lower the yield an investor should be willing to pay for that income stream.

UK BTR could potentially see quite fast income growth, if MSCI data can be believed. Gross rental income in the UK has increased at 4.4% pa since 2000 for residential property, over twice the rate of all commercial property (2.1% pa) as well as over 1%point ahead of inflation (which averaged 2.8%).

But can these numbers be relied upon given that ‘Build-to-Rent’ is a new style of residential investing which hasn’t existed before the last few years? Moreover, the data are for ‘gross rents’.

While gross rent is a relevant metric for UK commercial properties let on Full Repairing & Insuring (‘FRI’) leases, residential landlords focus on Net Operating Income (‘NOI’) because they have a variety of costs to pay from the gross rents. Outside the UK, where the FRI or ‘triple net’ lease is rare, investors tend to focus on NOI for all property types, and the contrast is not as great between commercial and residential property ‘gross-to-net’.

So where can reliable data be found to provide BTR investors in the UK with some guidance about expected NOI growth? The US is the obvious location with over 25 years of institutional investing experience in ‘multi-family’ properties. Over this period, residential NOI has increased at 3.5% pa with inflation growing at 2.2% pa.

Given that supply of new development is mostly not constrained in most parts of the US, certainly relative to the UK, it is not unreasonable to expect that UK NOI should be able to grow at least at a similar rate. My former colleagues at LaSalle in Chicago (with whom I still collaborate) have some caveats about the data used here, but it is a fair representation of the consistent growth achievable.

UK wages and salaries are an important determinant of rental growth. Recently wage growth has struggled even to match inflation, but assuming austerity does end eventually, then the market should be able to generate above-inflation growth. So, all long-term investors should consider the UK Build-to-Rent sector an attractive investment.

Dr. Robin Goodchild is one of the trainers of the UK Institutional PRS courses for service providers, investors already investing in UK PRS or those considering investing in PRS or BTR. See https://www.propertyoverview.co.uk/prs-courses

The Grenfell Tower fire is impacting many apartments across the UK

The tragedy of the Grenfell Tower remains etched on people’s minds and in people’s hearts. Its charred remains stand there as a cemetery in the sky, reminding people daily of what happened. Besides the traumatic ramifications for the residents, neighbours and their families, the tragedy is makings its impact felt across the nation, and probably further.

Fire safety measures were revisited everywhere, and especially cladding on tower blocks were placed under close scrutiny, as it was believed to be the greatest cause behind the carnage in Grenfell Tower. Many residents of other, similar, towers have been sleeping far less comfortably, or had to be moved out, at great cost to the landlord and local councils. Property owners see property values fall as units are now hard to let and sell, mortgage lenders become more cautious and housebuilders and developers revisit the drawing boards. Ground rent funds might be impacted due to disputes over who pays for what. Remedial works or surveillance measures are expected to cost various parties serious amounts of time and money. The (local) government for one will have to step in and step up.

Until the Government makes changes to the Building Regulations and/or to their cladding standards, many apartment owners find they cannot sell or let their properties. Some 300 social housing blocks appear to have defective cladding, but only 10 out of 159 Councils have begun remedial work; central Government (with a £400m fund) or local tax payers will have to meet these costs over the coming years. In the private sector 138 buildings (so far) appear to have similar cladding to Grenfell Tower and these include blocks in London, Slough, Liverpool, Manchester & Salford.

The issue affects old and new towers. Blocks of flats completing now will need to provide tenants sufficient comfort over their safety with regards to the cladding and other safety measures such as escape routes, sprinkler installations, fire doors and dry risers. Some developers are taking action, despite the costs to them, but we are not sure if all are, and if all are giving out sufficient information about fire safety deficiencies to residents. However, sometimes remedial work is not being done as it’s not possible – but not from a technical point of view.

Pinnacle, the managing agent for the four blocks of the New Festival Quarter in Poplar, has applied to the National House Building Council (NHBC) for a review of Bellway’s building practises, yet they cannot calculate the replacement cladding costs as the Government has yet to agree to new standards. This makes it impossible to move forward.

What other costly examples are there of impacts across residential schemes? There are some leading lights that took preventative action. Bellway for example committed £400,000 of their own funding to fit alarms and heat detectors to New Festival Quay. But more money is being spent: service charge increases include c. £500,000 spent over the last eleven months on fire marshals. These costs are not recoverable from the NHBC or Bellway. The 500 home New Festival Quay in Greenwich built by Galliard Homes is believed to be the largest private development in London with flammable cladding. The current projection for replacing the cladding is estimated at some £10m.

Mace is believed to be paying around £100,000 per month to cover the cost of extra fire safety measures introduced following the discovery of Grenfell-style cladding on one of its London developments. The £100,000 covers the costs of a 24/7 fire patrol, or ‘waking watch’, in one of the blocks at its £225m Greenwich Square Project, although other parts of the development are unaffected. The ‘waking watch’ was installed at Greenwich Square following a London Fire Brigade inspection of the development in March, which concluded there was unsuitable cladding being used.

The above examples will put many other housebuilders and developers on notice.

Besides the obvious impact that it is harder to let out affected apartments, lowering rental income and their value, or even making it nigh impossible to sell, managing agents will struggle to recover the fire safety costs from leaseholders and freeholders. Government, Councils and leaseholders are likely to see higher costs to remedy the defects.

Grenfell Tower had and continues to have an enormous impact in many ways. We cannot stand by and let it happen again. We owe that to the memory of too many people. Let’s get this sorted.

Written by Charles Fairhurst, an experienced UK PRS fund manager and trainer on the Institutional PRS courses run by Property Overview

Please see https://www.propertyoverview.co.uk/prs-courses on the training courses and https://www.propertyoverview.co.uk/about  to find out more about Charles and the rest of our team